Overcoming uncertainty

As you probably know, the climate change negotiations for the year have been under way in Durban for the past week. And for another year, large, industrial nations will skirt the issue, citing economic downturns and uncertainty of how much the Earth will warm in the future because of greenhouse gas emissions. In the spirit of action, however, I continue to encourage action in the face of uncertainty. 

Why is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?, written by Gerard Roe and Marcia Baker of the University of Washington, is one of the most fascinating scientific papers I have ever read. Here is the abstract (don't worry if you don't understand exactly what they are saying, just skip the next paragraph...for the science-minded, the paper is beautifully straightforward compared to other scientific papers):

Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes.

(Resume reading here) The authors go through some very elegant mathematics to show, basically, that regardless of how much future work is done in reducing the uncertainties of how much global mean temperatures will rise because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the bounds of climate sensitivity (the increase in global mean temperatures resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide emissions) will still be wide. To boil it down even further, even if we continue researching the climate system for another decade, or two, or three, we may still be stuck with saying, "Temperatures will rise between 3.6-8.1 degrees Fahrenheit." What does this statement mean? It means that we are uncertain how much the temperature will rise, but we are certain that it will rise to a number between than range. Indeed, the uncertainty surrounds the magnitude of temperature rise, not the actuality of temperature rise as a whole. Unfortunately, uncertainty allows the powerful, who don't understand the notion of it, to dither on decisive action. And for all of our efforts, we might still be waving the Maldives goodbye, regardless if some new paper comes out saying that climate sensitivity lies between 3 and 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

But there are ways to counter uncertainty, and that is through the tangibility of our choices. And to that end, I want to reiterate what I said last April:

How can we deal with the fear of uncertainty, knowing that we are degrading what it is that sustains us, but are so invested in the way it is, that we kick the stone down the road? This world has always been an uncertain place to most people, and yet to me, there is a beautiful certainty about it. Rather than think and worry about the future, we can all make decisions here and now such that tomorrow will be a good day. We all want to live in a world in which what we cherish is alive, healthy and sustained. To live in that world, we must act in such a way that we cherish, respect and sustain now, today. It is not complicated. If I respect and cherish my relationship with my friends and family today, those relationships will grow stronger and more resilient; tomorrow those people will still love me, and I will still love them. I do not have to live in the fear of a grudge or a toxic conversation. If I respect the tree and the river today, they will be healthy and full of life tomorrow. Now is easier to comprehend and experience and think about. Acting well now will save us much trouble tomorrow.

 I stand by these words more than ever before. Such choices in the face of uncertainty nip uncertainty in the bud, for we abstain from being complicit in ecologically degrading behaviour. There is nothing uncertain about that.

Guest blog #20: Jason Lai breaking it down

"I’ve written before about and alluded to the problems that the inherent complexity of the issue of a sustainable future presents to society (in some ways, this current post will be redundant in that context). In the context of environmental activism, those dedicated to sustainability often propose action with uncertainty. When we promote, for example, action to combat climate change, the effects are largely uncertain. This uncertainty allows those with antithetical agendas to easily create resistance (in this context, we remain stuck at identifying climate change as a problem). The most successful environmental campaigns (in my admittedly uninformed opinion) are those that have tangible goals and clear solutions, for example utilizing CFL light bulbs, or phasing out CFCs. These examples also have the advantage of minimally disturbing the status quo.

Ultimately, this is a long way of stating that small gradual changes are an effective means of affecting change towards sustainability. Of course, this statement is likely obvious, but perhaps important to keep in mind in the context of breaking large paradigm-altering shifts down into smaller bite-sized chunks, fit for public consumption."

~Jason


I do believe that steps, at times baby steps, are necessary in moving us towards a less ecologically degrading future, which is diametrically opposite to the current status quo, indeed a paradigm shift. It is important, however, to realise that these are steps, steps towards a goal, and not ends in themselves. While we can be satisfied with what we've done, we cannot let that make us lose sight of where we need to be.

~Darshan

Objects and materials: On cost and value (quasi-guest blogger #14 Marco Ceze)

Back to how we perceive the physical objects that we choose to interact with and buy. Marco called me today about some thoughts, and this post reflects his thoughts, with a sprinkling of mine. Actually, Marco and I had a wonderful conversation a couple of weeks ago that led to the Objects and materials series of posts. This post is (kind of) about costs and benefits/value, but as you can probably tell, I am in no way a proponent of cost-benefit analysis, particularly when carried out using neoclassical and utilitarian approaches. I tend to align with the thoughts of someone like Doug Kysar...but then again, make a convincing argument and I'll side with you =)

Life in today's world is full of trade-offs and making choices with a dearth of information. We never know fully the impacts of our choices given a complicated world. Under these circumstances, it is somewhat natural to think about the benefits or value of doing something compared to the costs. (When I say "costs" I am talking about the price you'll face at a store.) This is probably the simplest way to boil down tons of considerations, making choices potentially more tractable. (I do not necessarily advocate this) Furthermore, many people especially in the West tend to think about the short to near term, and so the benefits of making a particular choice need to be realised sooner rather than later.

Let's focus on the glass versus plastic debate. Imagine you are going to throw a party. Of course, a plastic cup costs you much less than one made of glass, especially when you go to a party store and buy a hundred of them. The value that those plastic cups provides you and the people coming to the party is immediate, as would the value of using glass cups - everyone will drink and enjoy themselves (but hopefully have a DD to take them home). The cost of a hundred glass cups, of course, would be much higher than the cost of a hundred plastic cups. Glass cups, however, will more likely be reused, because we don't think of glass cups as "disposable." (Glass bottles on the other hand would be considered "disposable" by most.) But there is constant uncertainty about the future? What are you going to do with all of these glass cups? Your lease is ending in three months and then you're going to have to move all of these cups, or donate them! What a hassle...A glass cup over its lifetime will probably provide much more value than a plastic cup, making its cost-to-value ratio smaller than that for a plastic cup. However, the issue is the lifetime. As soon as a benefit or value is realised, many times we don't think it worth keeping something to see added benefits, and who knows what those benefits may look like. Throwing plastic cups away is generally much easier than continually washing glass cups. This is also the point where the social learning about materials seems to kick in, and lend its hand in this cost-to-value valuation. Since the monetary cost is less (and we know that by looking at the price tag), and the benefits and values have been realised immediately and future benefits are uncertain and since the material is "disposable," people will likely choose plastic SOLO cups over nice glass cups. Hmmm...does this make sense?